Industry Journalist Predicts 80% Decline in Xbox Game Pass Sales

Microsoft has traditionally been pretty secretive about sharing detailed data regarding Game Pass, leaving journalists and analysts to decipher the service’s overall performance. Recently, an industry journalist shed light on how Xbox titles included in Xbox Game Pass might see a drop of up to 80% in premium game sales on the Xbox platform. Interestingly, it’s suggested that the top-performing Game Pass titles may actually boost sales on other consoles like PlayStation.

In a recent discussion, former GamesIndustry.biz journalist Christopher Dring talked about the broader gaming market on InstallBase, touching on the effects of Xbox Game Pass. He mentioned that, based on anecdotes, developers can expect to lose about 80% of their anticipated premium sales on Xbox for titles included in Game Pass, though the losses aren’t as steep for major blockbuster releases.

Dring pointed out that games like Senua’s Saga: Hellblade 2, Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, and Starfield have shown through sales charts that Game Pass appears to impact their Xbox sales negatively. Yet, he added, when these games are available on different platforms, it can actually be advantageous. The increase in players on Xbox can drive sales on PlayStation, for instance.

This is an intriguing development, especially as Microsoft has started releasing some of its first-party games on other console platforms. Xbox head Phil Spencer even confirmed that more titles will be expanded to other systems in the future. Although the sales on Xbox might take a hit, the buzz surrounding their Game Pass release could fuel sales on PlayStation. Indiana Jones and the Great Circle is one such game heading to PlayStation, expected to arrive this spring.

Dring openly expressed his mixed feelings about subscription models, stating, “I’m actually conflicted about subscriptions. While they can reduce revenue and make it tougher for others, especially indie games not featured on Game Pass, they also ensure games reach a vast audience. In the competitive gaming world of 2024 and 2025, getting people to notice your game is incredibly challenging.”

He added an interesting perspective, saying, “It’s known that many players primarily play Call of Duty. If Game Pass subscribers who play Call of Duty decide to try other games available on the service—games they wouldn’t normally purchase—it’s hard to say that’s a negative outcome.”

In fact, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 was the first title from the franchise to debut on Xbox Game Pass, and publisher Activision hailed it as the “biggest Call of Duty release” in the series’s history.

How do you feel about this dynamic? Share your thoughts in the comments below. And if you’re eager to see what’s next for Game Pass, don’t miss our comprehensive list of upcoming titles slated for release in 2025.